The Wall Street Journal looked at the House's bill for healthcare reform and trashed it. Admittedly the WSJ is a conservative newspaper but I think this piece is an interesting analysis of what the Democrats have dreamed up. Here is a breakdown (my comments in italic):
- The Congressional Budget Office figures the House program will cost $1.055 trillion which is a little more than the $829 billion net cost the Dems have been claiming. ObamaCare will be lucky to cost under $2 trillion over 10 years; it will grow more after that.
- The House is counting on Medicare payments to doctors will be cut by 21.5% next year and deeper after that. Doctors love hearing that one.
- The House will expand eligibility to Medicaid to everyone below 150% of the poverty level, meaning that some 15 million new people will be added to the rolls as private insurance gets crowded out at a cost of $425 billion. A decade from now more than a quarter of the population will be on a program originally intended for poor women, children and the disabled. Few physicians take Medicaid as it is because it pays so little. Maybe in the future physicians will have to actually pay to see these patients instead of getting paid themselves?
- The amount of new taxes will be "European-like" starting with surcharges on the rich and moving lower and lower as more money is needed (think Alternative Minimum Tax). Even if Congress had confiscated 100% of the taxable income of people earning over $500,000 in the boom year of 2006, it would have only raised $1.3 trillion. To quote one of my favorite movies, "Where's the money, Lebowski? "
- The cost of insurance may triple under new burdens to cover "everyone" irregardless of medical history or health status. Private insurers may indeed go the way of the dodo and employee plans would be done as well.
- Mr. Obama's own Medicare actuaries estimate that the federal share of U.S. health dollars will quickly climb beyond 60% from 46% today.
- The new plan may cover more people but in the process will make care even more expensive and rigid than the status quo.
This is going to be a very bumpy ride.
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